Today, we debuted our national tracking poll, conducted using Google Consumer Surveys. We are one of the first researchers in the political space to embrace the technology and after working close with their team on some Republican primary work, wanted to build upon those successes throughout 2016.
The poll will run through Election Day 2016 and will present a unique opportunity to analyze how this data tracks with other surveys and ultimately, election results in November.
Key Findings
We fielded the initial survey August 3rd through 9th, with n = 1,194 total completes and 926 likely voter completes (MoE of 3.3%). With GCS, we rely on demographic data provided by Google to accurately weight to the larger national population.
First, we found relatively consistent data from other national surveys. Here are the ballot choices among the three major party candidates.
Ballot Choice:
- 36.6% Hillary Clinton
- 29.6% Donald Trump
- 9.8% Gary Johnson
- 23.9% Other/Don’t Know
Among those who picked a candidate, this is the breakdown:
- 48.2% Hillary Clinton
- 38.9% Donald Trump
- 12.9% Gary Johnson
There are some some interesting data to evaluate when comparing to 2012 vote preference. Hillary Clinton draws 85.8% of Obama voters, while Donald Trump is pulling in 80.0% of Romney voters.
Finally, party breakdowns for the three candidates: among self-identified Independent voters (31.8% of the survey), Clinton leads Trump 43.9% to 34.9%.
We’re dedicated to utilizing cutting edge and innovative tools for our data science and analytics problems and GCS is another possibility in that toolset. We will continue to update throughout the rest of 2016 as our tracker measures public sentiment.
For a full set of tables and methodology, click here.